Trump’s not just pretending to be a madman. He actually is one.
His unhinged behavior may alarm Americans more than it intimidates Iran
The master of political pragmatism, Niccolo Machiavelli, wrote in the 16th century that “at times it is a very wise thing to simulate madness.”
Four centuries later, another pragmatist, Richard Nixon, made use of the “madman theory” – the idea that you can win negotiations by making your opponents afraid you’ll do something crazy if they don’t make a deal. In Nixon’s case, he tried to convince the Soviet Union and North Vietnam that he had an itchy finger on the nuclear trigger.
But we’ve never had a president who acted as mad as Donald Trump.
I’m not the first person to apply the madman theory to Trump, of course, but I want to put it in the context of his illegal war and address the question of whether both the American people and the Iranians should be deeply frightened by his approach to warmaking.
There’s evidence that Trump consciously uses the madman theory. During trade talks with South Korea, he supposedly told his negotiators to warn their counterparts that “if they don’t give the concessions now, this crazy guy will pull out of the deal.”
There’s also evidence that Trump doesn’t care about committing atrocities. When asked on Monday whether hitting Iran’s power plants would be a war crime, he said: “I’m not worried about it.” And no one familiar with him would think he’s kidding about that. He’s comfortable with violating the law.
His messaging has been so bonkers that you’d like to think it’s just an act.
There’s the frequent rhetoric by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth casting the war as a modern-day crusade, with Christian warriors determined to smite the Muslims.
There was the Sunday social media post in which he dropped the F-bomb, called the Iranians “crazy bastards,” threatened war crimes, and mocked Islam by writing, “Praise be to Allah.”
There was his claim Monday that the Iranian people hate their leaders so much that they want their country to be bombed. “When they don’t hear bombs go off, they are upset,“ Trump said.
And there was his social post this morning warning that if Iran does not capitulate, “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”
Perhaps he’s managed to convince the Iranians that he’s insane. But that doesn’t mean the madman theory will work.
Penn State professor Roseanne McManus, in her superb essay on the theory in Foreign Affairs, noted that while the idea sounds compelling, it’s often ineffective, as it was with Nixon in Vietnam. There are two reasons why. First off, it’s difficult for leaders to persuade adversaries that they’re truly mad. And even if they do, they may still fail. “That is because by engaging in such behavior, leaders have trouble persuading opponents that they will stand by any commitments.”
That second issue is a particular problem with Trump, who has made a career of breaking promises, both in business and in politics. Making a deal with Trump is as reliable as paying tuition to Trump University.
Also, Iran remembers that it had a nuclear deal with the United States until Trump backed out of it as part of his campaign to erase the legacy of his predecessor, Barack Obama.
If Trump were really trying to use the madman theory to get a better deal, he wouldn’t do things that make Iran’s leaders dig in their heels, such as posting about Allah or falsely blaming Iran for the U.S. attack that killed more than 100 Iranian schoolchildren. His conduct has likely made the Iranians think that any deal at this point would be a deep humiliation for both their religion and their country.
Trump’s madman act is having a more obvious effect in the United States, where more than 8 million people protested against him last month and talk of removing him from office via impeachment or the 25th Amendment is gaining steam. Even as we watch him exhibit deranged behavior day after day, he somehow manages to shock us anew. I just wish he’d shock the mainstream media into amplifying the issue of his unfitness for office.
At a press conference Monday, a reporter – finally – asked him about public calls for an assessment of his mental health. “I haven’t heard that,” Trump lied. “But if that’s the case, you’re going to have to have more people like me.”
No, thank you, sir. This train’s crazy car is full.
The president’s actions are so beyond the norm that rational observers are worried he might resort to using a nuclear weapon to subdue an enemy he falsely claimed was “defeated” weeks ago.
Trump defends his decision to attack Iran because “you can’t put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic.” But the bitter irony is that Trump’s election is what put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic.
This week’s media atrocity
Some news outlets celebrated Sanewashing Sunday after Trump’s unhinged social media post threatening war crimes and mocking Islam. The Associated Press said his rhetoric was “fiery.” The New York Times gave the post a sheen of rationality, saying Trump seemed “emboldened” by the rescue of an American flier. The Times’ David Sanger remarked on CNN that the post was “unusually vivid.” Even Fox News did better, running a headline reporting that “Trump goes ballistic with profanity-laced threat.”
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The madman theory is just one more instance of people giving Trump too much credit. Do you really think a sane person is capable of spending a decade telling lies, bullying nations and people and starting wars all for the sake of pretense? On top of all his other awful flaws, Trump is detached from reality. He's never actually fought in a war and probably never even been in a street fight, so violence and destruction is an abstraction to him, like just another reality show. He is a totally unserious person being allowed to commit the most serious and deadly crimes.
It’s difficult to believe his words when he bluffs so often. He’s the ‘boy who cried wolf’.