If Trump wins, will major media fall in line?

There’s little reason for confidence that they’d resist a dictator.

I’m an optimist. I think Kamala Harris will win the election.

But what if she doesn’t? Or what if she wins but right-wing mischief after the election causes enough chaos that Donald Trump and JD Vance somehow end up in power?

What would the news media do?

Trump has made clear that if he wins he’ll launch a crackdown on news organizations that displease him – a frightening prospect that could be accomplished through changes in the law and various forms of harassment.

One particular target of the right-wing is the Supreme Court’s 1964 New York Times vs. Sullivan decision. Recognizing the need for journalists to report aggressively on powerful people, the court unanimously created a higher standard for defamation against “public figures,” ruling that they would have to prove actual malice or reckless disregard for the truth – not just that the report was inaccurate.

Trump has said he wants libel laws to be tougher on the press. And Justice Clarence Thomas, whose acceptance of millions of dollars in trips and other gifts has been uncovered by investigative reporters, has stated explicitly that he wants the Supreme Court to reconsider the Sullivan ruling.

There are plenty of other ways a fascist government could punish its enemies in the press. 

Trump has threatened to revoke the federal licenses of TV networks that displease him. The networks don’t actually need licenses to operate, but their local affiliates do. If he controlled the Federal Communications Commission, he could yank their licenses. 

Trump has expressed admiration for Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban’s approach to the media. As democracy advocates Ian Bassin and Maximillian Potter wrote about Orban: “The barrage of audits, investigations, and regulatory harassment he directed at his media critics, coupled with orders that his government agencies direct public advertising dollars only to media sufficiently loyal to him, drove independent media from the field.”

Then there’s the issue of “access,” which American politicians already use to manipulate the news media. An authoritarian government could issue its public announcements exclusively through its favored outlets. It could shut independent journalists out of news conferences, as Trump attempted to do in 2018 with CNN’s Jim Acosta.

An even more aggressive approach would be for Trump to target the media as part of his stated plan to use the Justice Department to punish his enemies. In that way, he could cripple his press critics with legal fees and even throw them in prison. We have to accept that as a possibility.

So, if Trump took over and launched an intimidation campaign, what would the news media do?

Some journalists would keep doing what they’re doing now, highlighting the corruption of the Republican Party. Some of them (including me) would fight to the end. If the voices of dissent are small enough, the fascists might tolerate them for a while. But small voices sometimes become large voices, especially when they’re telling the truth. And thus they would become bigger targets.

While some independent voices might hold out, I’m more worried about the big players, the media corporations. They reach more people, and market forces make them especially vulnerable. If Trump wins, some pressure on them would be subtle. Some would be explicit.

Italian dictator Benito Mussolini started out as a journalist, and he recognized the power of the press to help him remain Il Duce, the supreme leader. As described by journalist Annalisa Merelli, Mussolini’s Ministry of Popular Culture gave careful instructions to news outlets. Because the directives were typed on thin paper, they were known as veline, after the Italian term for tissue paper, carta velina. Mussolini’s veline gave instructions such as “absolutely do not mention in today’s reporting the ballet the Duce attended in Belluno” and “never care about anything concerning Einstein.” 

What kind of veline would major American media get, and how would they react? The top execs would be unlikely to resist for long based solely on principle. Corporations’ mission is to make money, and you don’t make money if the government shuts you down.

We’re already seeing media behavior that could be interpreted as “anticipatory obedience” in case Trump wins. 

In one eyebrow-raising example, NBCU News Group acquired the documentary “Separated” about Trump’s family separation policy and decided to delay broadcasting it on its network until December – after the election. This is the same corporation that wanted to hire Jan. 6 coup conspirator Ronna McDaniel as an expert commentator and only backed off because of a revolt by its on-air journalists.

In Bassin and Potter’s essay in the Columbia Journalism Review, they gave another example: the sucking-up of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

In 2020, Zuckerberg gave hundreds of millions of dollars to local election offices to help them cope with the challenges of the pandemic. In July, Trump threatened Zuckerberg with prison if such funding occurred again. Bassin and Potter wrote that days later “Meta announced it was removing a set of restrictions on Trump’s Facebook and Instagram accounts that had been placed there after Trump previously violated the company’s terms of service. Zuckerberg then praised Trump as a ‘badass’ and announced that his philanthropic arm would not be repeating any of its past support for nonpartisan election administration.”

There’s no reason to be confident about how any mainstream media would react to coercion from Trump.

The New York Times seems to be on an island of neutrality now, often putting a soft focus on Trump’s authoritarianism with obtuse headlines and ridiculous euphemisms. If dictatorship descended, would the Times describe detention camps as “involuntary gatherings”?

I’m especially worried about the Washington Post, which has covered politics better than the Times in recent years. But for how long? Its publisher, Will Lewis, is dogged by scandal over his past work for right-wing propagandist Rupert Murdoch. He is accused of helping cover up phone hacking by Murdoch employees in the United Kingdom. Can we trust Lewis to look out for democracy?

Then there’s Politico, which has a mixed record this election season and has been operating under a cloud since the CEO of its German parent company sent an email in 2022 inviting fellow execs to pray for Trump’s re-election. 

Even Fox News has come under attack from Trump for interviewing Harris on its channel and for running Harris ads. But that’s just Trump’s way of keeping his propagandists in line. A successful tyrant knows he must instill fear in his allies as well as his enemies.

Trump needs Fox. If he wins, Fox could become a Ministry of Popular Culture that sends the rest of the news media the veline – the tissue paper that wipes away the truth. The way to prevent that is to defeat Trumpism at the ballot box so that Mussolini’s tissue paper remains in the trash.