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Trump and prediction markets are building a society of suckers
Prediction markets are perfect examples of how Donald Trump and the oligarchs who conspire with him are building a nation of chumps, a society of suckers.
These markets are online betting parlors by another name. They allow people to wager on a wide variety of questions, from“Next prime minister of Ethiopia?“ to “Where will ‘Janice STFU’ by Drake rank on the Billboard Hot 100 chart dated Aug 1, 2026?”
Prediction markets are sometimes described as a testament to “the wisdom of crowds,” but such wisdom has its limits. The markets are notoriously vulnerable to insider trading, which means people who control events or have private knowledge of what will happen can make a killing.
Trump, who loves gray-area, funny-money opportunities like cryptocurrency and prediction markets, has made his position clear. He wants his Commodity Futures Trading Commission to have “exclusive authority” over prediction markets, with no regulation by the states. “We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker setting the rules!” Trump wrote in May.
Trump’s CFTC chairman, Michael Selig, doesn’t look like much of a watchdog. This month, he praised prediction markets as “an interesting hedging tool” that helps companies “manage risk.” And the president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., is a booster, too. He has financial ties to the top two prediction markets – serving as an investor and unpaid adviser for Polymarket and a paid adviser for Kalshi.
Major news media are also in cahoots. CNBC and CNN treat Kalshi’s numbers as if they’re news – and both have financial deals to promote the company. CNBC sometimes fails to disclose that relationship when reporting on Kalshi, according to an excellent report by Aaron Rupar and Judd Legum. CNBC says it discloses its financial link only when it is “directly relevant to the story.”
CNN’s deal with Kalshi is exclusive, which means CNN can’t cite other prediction markets in its coverage, a network source told The New Yorker. If the coverage of Kalshi’s wagers were actually news instead of just sneaky product placement, why wouldn’t CNN occasionally cite other prediction markets, too?
While CNBC and CNN continue this gross perversion of their journalistic mission, other news outlets are doing fine jobs of exposing the ways these markets make our country more dishonest and exploitative. Among the most damning reports:
About 0.1% of accounts on Polymarket collect about two-thirds of the profits, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.
In a stunningly dodgy tactic, Polymarket created “clone” sites on which social media influencers made fake bets before posting videos with messages like, “I just turned $500 into $100K.”
The Associated Press reported: “A group of new accounts on the prediction market Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed bets on whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, resulting in hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits … At least 50 accounts, or wallets, placed substantial ‘Yes’ bets Tuesday before Trump announced the ceasefire in a Truth Social post at around 6:30 pm ET. These were the first bets made by these particular wallets.”
Some prediction markets let people to bet on wildfires. “Experts are sounding the alarm,” says CNN. “They fear it risks incentivizing arson.”
Kalshi will soon begin taking bets on the outcomes of clinical drug trials. Nothing bad could come from that, right?
Trump’s teleprompter operator is suspected of using his inside knowledge to win more than $100,000 betting on Kalshi about what the president would say in his major speeches.
Spotify removed about 500,000 streams from Malcolm Todd’s song “Earrings” after its strong performance on the charts was linked to manipulation tied to Kalshi bets.
Polymarket pays “influencers” to insert its product into social media conversations. Among them: former Politico reporter Rachael Bade, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, anti-trans activist Riley Gaines, leftist commentator Brian Krassenstein, and right-wing podcaster Benny Johnson (who was also funded by Russia, supposedly without his knowledge).
Billionaire Peter Thiel, the money man behind JD Vance’s political career, is a major investor in Polymarket.
The greed of Team Trump and the mainstream media have empowered prediction markets to separate many people from their money while allowing a few to quietly profit from dodgy schemes.
CNBC and CNN aren’t the only media companies with prediction market ties. Polymarket has a partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal, though it must be said that some of the most negative stories about prediction markets have appeared in the WSJ.
Polymarket also has a cooperation agreement with Substack, the publishing platform for this newsletter, which is sponsored by COURIER Newsroom. I have had no dealings with any prediction market and pledge to never take their money.
If you see a journalist or influencer posting positively about a prediction market on social media, ask them in the comments whether they have any financial ties. I have done that myself and aim to do it more often.
Prediction markets, as currently operated, stink to high heaven.
This week’s media atrocity
Reacting to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s campaign to boost testosterone levels in the military, Fox host Jesse Watters declared: “Women on base, you guys better be careful. Port calls, women in Asia, you better be careful. Because these guys are going to be wild animals and you better watch out.”
Yep, rape is hilarious if you’re an idiot like Jesse Watters.
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